New info about N.Zealand quake has grim details

Newly uncovered details about the earthquake that rocked New Zealand in February may offer grim lessons regarding the potential threat of fault lines running through urban centers.

The relatively moderate earthquake that struck the city of Christchurch in February surprised many with its destructive power. The magnitude 6.2 temblor killed more than 180 people and damaged or destroyed more than 100,000 buildings, the deadliest quake to strike New Zealand in 80 years. Much of the damage came from a phenomenon called liquefaction, where soils are shaken and begin to behave as a liquid, undermining buildings and other structures.

"The high intensity of shaking was greater than expected, particularly for a moderate-size earthquake, and the liquefaction-induced damage was extensive and severe," said Erol Kalkan, a research structural engineer and manager of the National Strong Motion Network with the U.S. Geological Survey and guest editor of a special issue of the journal Seismological Research Letters focused on the Christchurch earthquake out Tuesday.

The degree of damage was particularly surprising given the relative preparedness of the city.

"Compared to the earthquake that destroyed much of Haiti, the scale of disaster in Christchurch may seem small," added geoscientist Jonathan Lees at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and editor-in-chief of Seismological Research Letters. "Christchurch, however, was constructed using much better technology and engineering practices, raising a very sobering alarm to other major, high density western urban centers."

The Christchurch earthquake followed a larger magnitude 7.1 quake in Darfield, New Zealand, in September 2010 that was less destructive and did not cause any deaths. Both earthquakes ruptured along previously unmapped faults, but the corresponding damage was quite different. The differences seen between the sites helped offer scientists insights as to why the Christchurch earthquake proved so devastating.

Key quake lessons
One key lesson regarding the unexpected intensity of the Christchurch quake may have to do with the city's foundations. Much of Christchurch was once swampland, beach dune sand, estuaries and lagoons that were drained as the area was settled. As a result, large areas beneath the city and its environs are characterized by loose sand, gravel and silt ? soil types highly susceptible to liquefaction. Widespread damage induced by liquefaction within the central business district of the city required 1,000 buildings to be demolished.

Another lesson comes from the basin of bedrock that lies under Christchurch: The shape and material of this basin likely amplified ground shaking, trapping and focusing seismic energy within it just as a lens bends light.

"Many urban areas are built over soft sediments and in valleys or over basins ? for example, the San Francisco Bay Area and Los Angeles Metropolitan," Kalkan said. "These are urban areas that sit atop geological features that may exaggerate or amplify ground motion, just as Christchurch experienced."

Future changes
Profound changes in building codes are getting evaluated for the next generation of structures in New Zealand, ideas that may influence cities in the United States and the rest of the world that face similar hazards.

"One of the major lessons to learn from Christchurch is to make the foundations of these buildings much stronger to reduce damage from liquefaction," Kalkan told OurAmazingPlanet. "However, the most important lesson may be to avoid construction on soft soils where liquefaction is a problem."

"This is just the beginning for New Zealand," Kalkan added. "I'm sure we'll see many changes down the road in their construction practices."

Source: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45122717/ns/technology_and_science-science/

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Hulu Plus app ready and waiting for Apple TV, competitive worries causing its delay?

Apple already has a Hulu Plus app up and running on Apple TV but may be delaying its launch due to concerns it will compete with iTunes TV Show sales, according to 9to5Mac. Their sources claim the Hulu Plus for Apple TV is now feature complete...

Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheIphoneBlog/~3/-3k4VuQyikA/

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The Week in Gaming News :: Games :: News :: Paste

The Week in Gaming News

Our round-up of notable news from the world of gaming for the week of October 24, 2011.

? Blizzard has said that they are open to the idea of a Starcraft movie.
? Check out this awesome live-action trailer for The Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim.
? Notch has stated that his upcoming title Scrolls will not be free, but will contain free-to-play elements.
? A new trailer shows off the ?Den Defense? mode of Assassin?s Creed: Revelations.
? Epic Games has announced that they are already working on Unreal Engine 4, and plan to have it ready for ?day one? of the next generation of consoles.
? There?s one day left to snag the Indie Royale bundle, containing four games at a minimal price-point.
? Apparently, the PSVita Internet browser will not support Flash at launch.

And from Paste?s own news coverage:
? Grand Theft Auto V was officially announced, with a trailer coming Nov. 2.
? The XBLA verison of Minecraft has been delayed until sometime in 2012.
? Simon Ferrari talked about IndieCade 2011.
? And finally, our reviews of Uncharted 3: Drake?s Deception, Red Orchestra 2: Heroes of Stalingrad, and Mage Gauntlet.

Got news tips for Paste? Email news@pastemagazine.com.

Source: http://www.pastemagazine.com/articles/2011/10/the-week-in-gaming-news-36.html

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Mathematically detecting stock market bubbles before they burst

ScienceDaily (Oct. 31, 2011) ? From the dotcom bust in the late nineties to the housing crash in the run-up to the 2008 crisis, financial bubbles have been a topic of major concern. Identifying bubbles is important in order to prevent collapses that can severely impact nations and economies.

A paper published this month in the SIAM Journal on Financial Mathematics addresses just this issue. Opening fittingly with a quote from New York Federal Reserve President William Dudley emphasizing the importance of developing tools to identify and address bubbles in real time, authors Robert Jarrow, Younes Kchia, and Philip Protter propose a mathematical model to detect financial bubbles.

A financial bubble occurs when prices for assets, such as stocks, rise far above their actual value. Such an economic cycle is usually characterized by rapid expansion followed by a contraction, or sharp decline in prices.

"It has been hard not to notice that financial bubbles play an important role in our economy, and speculation as to whether a given risky asset is undergoing bubble pricing has approached the level of an armchair sport. But bubbles can have real and often negative consequences," explains Protter, who has spent many years studying and analyzing financial markets.

"The ability to tell when an asset is or is not in a bubble could have important ramifications in the regulation of the capital reserves of banks as well as for individual investors and retirement funds holding assets for the long term. For banks, if their capital reserve holdings include large investments with unrealistic values due to bubbles, a shock to the bank could occur when the bubbles burst, potentially causing a run on the bank, as infamously happened with Lehman Brothers, and is currently happening with Dexia, a major European bank," he goes on to explain, citing the significance of such inflated prices.

Using sophisticated mathematical methods, Protter and his co-authors answer the question of whether the price increase of a particular asset represents a bubble in real time. "[In this paper] we show that by using tick data and some statistical techniques, one is able to tell with a large degree of certainty, whether or not a given financial asset (or group of assets) is undergoing bubble pricing," says Protter.

This question is answered by estimating an asset's price volatility, which is stochastic or randomly determined. The authors define an asset's price process in terms of a standard stochastic differential equation, which is driven by Brownian motion. Brownian motion, based on a natural process involving the erratic, random movement of small particles suspended in gas or liquid, has been widely used in mathematical finance. The concept is specifically used to model instances where previous change in the value of a variable is unrelated to past changes.

The key characteristic in determining a bubble is the volatility of an asset's price, which, in the case of bubbles is very high. The authors estimate the volatility by applying state of the art estimators to real-time tick price data for a given stock. They then obtain the best possible extension of this data for large values using a technique called Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Spaces (RKHS), which is a widely used method for statistical learning.

"First, one uses tick price data to estimate the volatility of the asset in question for various levels of the asset's price," Protter explains. "Then, a special technique (RKHS with an optimization addition) is employed to extrapolate this estimated volatility function to large values for the asset's price, where this information is not (and cannot be) available from tick data. Using this extrapolation, one can check the rate of increase of the volatility function as the asset price gets arbitrarily large. Whether or not there is a bubble depends on how fast this increase occurs (its asymptotic rate of increase)."

If it does not increase fast enough, there is no bubble within the model's framework.

The authors test their methodology by applying the model to several stocks from the dot-com bubble of the nineties. They find fairly successful rates in their predictions, with higher accuracies in cases where market volatilities can be modeled more efficiently. This helps establish the strengths and weaknesses of the method.

The authors have also used the model to test more recent price increases to detect bubbles. "We have found, for example, that the IPO [initial public offering] of LinkedIn underwent bubble pricing at its debut, and that the recent rise in gold prices was not a bubble, according to our models," Protter says.

It is encouraging to see that mathematical analysis can play a role in the diagnosis and detection of bubbles, which have significantly impacted economic upheavals in the past few decades.

Robert Jarrow is a professor at the Johnson Graduate School of Management at Cornell University in Ithaca, NY, and managing director of the Kamakura Corporation. Younes Kchia is a graduate student at Ecole Polytechnique in Paris, and Philip Protter is a professor in the Statistics Department at Columbia University in New York.

Professor Protter's work was supported in part by NSF grant DMS-0906995.

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The above story is reprinted from materials provided by Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics.

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Journal Reference:

  1. Robert Jarrow, Younes Kchia, and Philip Protter. How to Detect an Asset Bubble. SIAM J. Finan. Math., 2011; 2, pp. 839-865 [link]

Note: If no author is given, the source is cited instead.

Disclaimer: Views expressed in this article do not necessarily reflect those of ScienceDaily or its staff.

Source: http://feeds.sciencedaily.com/~r/sciencedaily/~3/MSPMYX2Fs_c/111031220609.htm

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Portugal wants U.S. help in euro crisis: source (Reuters)

ASUNCION (Reuters) ? Portugal asked Mexico on Saturday to tell fellow G20 members next week that the United States should offer "financial help" to resolve the euro zone sovereign debt crisis, describing it as a "systemic and global" problem, a Portuguese government source said.

Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho asked Mexican President Felipe Calderon to convey the message during the G20 meeting in Cannes next week, the source told reporters after the two leaders met at the Ibero-American summit in Paraguay.

"The crisis isn't in the euro zone. It is a systemic and global crisis and we hope that other big G20 countries intervene," the source told reporters in the capital Asuncion, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The source added that Washington should help resolve the crisis "by boosting trade and also with financial help."

No one from Calderon's delegation in Asuncion could immediately be reached for comment.

Financial markets rallied strongly this week after European leaders hammered out a deal to recapitalize their banks, boost the firepower of a euro zone rescue fund, and impose hefty losses on holders of Greek debt.

However, economic analysts quickly warned that details of the rescue could still take weeks or even months to work out.

Portugal is suffering a deepening recession as it implements painful austerity measures under a 78-billion-euro ($110.3-billion) EU/IMF bailout.

(Reporting by Guido Nejamkis; Writing by Helen Popper; Editing by Paul Simao)

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/europe/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20111029/bs_nm/us_eurozone_g20_portugal

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Online Hackers Threaten To Expose Cartel's Secrets

Houston Chronicle:

An international group of online hackers is warning a Mexican drug cartel to release one of its members, kidnapped from a street protest, or it will publish the identities and addresses of the syndicate's associates, from corrupt police to taxi drivers, as well as reveal the syndicates' businesses.

Read the whole story: Houston Chronicle

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Source: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/10/29/anonymous-drug-cartel_n_1065243.html

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Obamas hand out Halloween treats at White House (AP)

WASHINGTON ? Turns out, the White House did not get egged.

Trick-or-treaters marched up the White House driveway on a wet, snowy Saturday, past the spider web-like gauze, the pumpkins and the costumed actors to the mansion's north portico where President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama handed out treats, an annual tradition.

"What's this? Look at this guy," the president said at the sight of one costumed child. "A headless man. Terrifying!"

And yes, the sweets included signature boxes of White House M&Ms, signaling a temporary respite from the first lady's healthy eating campaign. Dried fruit and White House baked cookies rounded out the handouts.

Earlier this week, in an appearance on the "Tonight Show," Obama joked to host Jay Leno that he had warned his wife that if she wanted to avoid Halloween mischief she might want to dole out more than just fruit and raisins.

"I told her the White House is going to get egged if this keeps up," he said, suggesting that she might want to add "a couple of Reese's Pieces or something."

In the spirit of compromise, a trait the president often says is all too rare in Washington, the M&Ms made it into the goody bags. Not exactly Reese's Pieces, but close enough. (Truth be told, the M&Ms were included in the treats last year, too). The sweet dough butter cookies were baked by White House Pastry Chef Bill Yosses.

The orange lights bathed the north portico as the president in black fleece jacket and slacks and the first lady in an overcoat greeted the parade of children. The Obamas were joined by the first lady's mother, Marian Robinson.

All three wished their guests happy Halloween and marveled at their costumes.

Commenting on the dank weather and nearly freezing temperatures, Obama said to nearby reporters: "I know it's cold here, you guys doing alright? It's not ideal out here."

Michelle Obama hugged several of the children and even wrapped one shivering child with her overcoat, declaring, "Oh, she's freezing!"

Actors from Washington-area theatres dressed as ghosts, Winnie the Pooh, a Star Wars stormtrooper, Charlie Chaplin and more greeted the children along the north lawn driveway.

Children from 17 elementary schools from Washington and nearby Virginia and Maryland school districts were invited. Children from the Boys and Girls Club of America and children from military families also participated. Later, the children of military families were invited to a Halloween party at the White House.

Source: http://us.rd.yahoo.com/dailynews/rss/topstories/*http%3A//news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20111030/ap_on_re_us/us_obama_halloween

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Europe Seeks Chinese Investment in Euro Rescue

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Source: www.nytimes.com --- Saturday, October 29, 2011
Beijing is expected to demand major concessions in any deal, which would be perhaps its biggest opportunity yet to exercise financial clout in the West. ...

Source: http://feeds.nytimes.com/click.phdo?i=375c92980ced87ab14a8e1399e0c7385

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Did you know that hard candy is actually a glass?


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Michelle ClementMichelle Clement has a B.Sc. in zoology and a M.Sc. in organismal biology, both from The Ohio State University. Her thesis research was on the ecophysiology of epidermal lipids and water homeostasis in house sparrows. She now works as a technical editor for The American Chemical Society. In addition to Crude Matter, she also has a personal blog at C6-H12-O6. Friend her on Facebook. Follow on Twitter @physilology.

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--> Michelle Clement"Life creates [the Force], makes it grow. Its energy surrounds us and binds us. Luminous beings are we, not this crude matter," Yoda explains in The Empire Strikes Back, gesturing to Luke's physical body. This quote is striking because of the apt juxtaposition of the wonder of life with its often disgusting vessel. Like many other animals, we secrete, excrete, expectorate, defecate, flatulate, regurgitate, urinate, circulate, masticate, menstruate, ejaculate, and ventilate. We are filled with gas and feces and blood and guts and mucus and any number of rude things. Life as we know it is possible because of the countless impolite things we do every day. Are we luminous beings? Perhaps, but that's neither here nor there. This blog is about the crude matter that keeps us alive.

Michelle Clement has a B.Sc. in zoology (with a minor in American culture studies) and a M.Sc. in organismal biology from The Ohio State University. Her thesis research was on the ecophysiology of epidermal lipids and water homeostasis in house sparrows. She now works as a technical editor for The American Chemical Society. In addition to Crude Matter, Michelle also blogs at her personal blog, C6-H12-O6. Her broader interests include weird human and animal physiology, obesity and enteric physiology, endocrinology, sexual and reproductive health, personal genomics, evolutionary psychology, anthropology (physical and cultural), sociology (mainly GLBT, race relations, etc), and science education and communication. She lives in Ohio with her boyfriend and two cats.

- - physilology Contact Michelle Clement via email.
Follow Michelle Clement on Twitter as @physilology.-->

As Halloween is right around the corner, here?s a video from ByteSizeScience on how hard candy is made:

Making hard candy. Credit: Flickr user taygete05.

Some things of note:
(1) Hard candy is technically a glass made of sugar!
(2) There are three stages of sugar boiling, and the maximum temperature that it reaches determines the physical properties of the resulting candy (I think this is primarily a function of how much water is remaining in the sugar mixture).
(3) If you watch the video, you?ll figure out why hard candy always has a ring around the edge. This was something I didn?t know.

Enjoy. Perhaps I?ll write a post later about what your body does with all that sugar after you eat it. :)Site Meter

Michelle ClementAbout the Author: Michelle Clement has a B.Sc. in zoology and a M.Sc. in organismal biology, both from The Ohio State University. Her thesis research was on the ecophysiology of epidermal lipids and water homeostasis in house sparrows. She now works as a technical editor for The American Chemical Society. In addition to Crude Matter, she also has a personal blog at C6-H12-O6. Friend her on Facebook. Follow on Twitter @physilology.

The views expressed are those of the author and are not necessarily those of Scientific American.

Source: http://rss.sciam.com/click.phdo?i=02c8b7b298bbaacea06b98e11e6d88fe

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